02 September 2023
Energy, which has always accompanied every evolution of society, is the key enabling factor to substantiate the path to a Society of the Future that expresses the achievement of full social, cultural and economic progress by combining ecological transition, sustainability, equality and inclusiveness.
This is the finding of the study "Towards the Society of the Future: How we will live, work, and relate, and the energies of transformation," carried out by Edison and The European House – Ambrosetti anticipated today, as part of The European House – Ambrosetti's 49th Forum, at a press conference attended by Valerio De Molli, Managing Partner and CEO of The European House – Ambrosetti, Nicola Monti, CEO of Edison, and Ferruccio Resta, President MOST - National Center for Sustainable Mobility, President of Fondazione Bruno Kessler, Professor at the Politecnico di Milano and member of the Advisory Board that oversaw the development of the research.
"The last few years have been characterized by a 'permanent state of crisis': from the pandemic to the Russian invasion of Ukraine to the return of inflation and the various climate emergencies that have affected our country and all of Europe, the word crisis has never disappeared from the headlines," commented Valerio De Molli, Managing Partner and CEO of The European House – Ambrosetti. "In this general picture, it is even more crucial to ask ourselves what the Society of the Future will look like and what medium- to long-term prospects it will be able to offer its key players. Important positive messages emerge from this study, which has a strong value of strategic direction and which brings into system the evidence of extensive listening to the protagonists of change such as the country's young people and companies. On the one hand, the shared belief of the opportunity associated with the ecological transition: 7-out-of-10 young people and 6-out-of-10 companies believe it is the priority for the Society of the Future. On the other hand, confidence in the role of technological innovation in a context where 7-out-of-10 young people see digital as an integral part of their daily lives. Sharing the goal of ecological transition and trust in technology are thus the best response to the permanent crisis of recent years."
Through an analysis of the main drivers of change, the study identified three mega trends that will impact the development of the Society until 2050: global geopolitical and economic dynamics, demography, and technological evolution.
- The most evident trend related to the current geopolitical context concerns the bipolarization taking place in the international system between the Western bloc and the Sino/Russian bloc complemented by a heterogeneous group of countries that prefer "variable geometry" and multidimensional partnerships depending on the strategic interests at stake from time to time. In turn, the evolution of the international system also involves a reorganization of global value chains, starting with industrial sectors deemed strategic and technology-intensive. The current trend, then, appears to be the redefinition of international trade within a fragmented globalization divided among geographic areas of competence.
- The demographic context sees the combination of two different factors: on the one hand, a strong change in the demographic weights of different regions of the world is visible. In particular, Europe's share of the global population is expected to reach 7 percent by 2050, down 13 percentage points from 1960 and 2 percentage points from 2022. In mature economies, the demographic scenario also implies population aging: in Italy, the over-65 population is now 23.5 percent of the total and could rise to 34.9 percent of the total by 2050.
- Technological acceleration is now related, first and foremost, to the increasingly pervasive process of digitization. In the most recent period, technological acceleration has been associated with the development of generative Artificial Intelligence: ChatGPT was the fastest app to reach 100 million monthly users, taking only 2 months. The development of Artificial Intelligence has thus become a central issue in the international competitive scenario with all major countries committed to gaining a competitive advantage from its application.
The results of the survey addressed to young people and companies
In order to better qualify the perspective of the future and perceptions with respect to Italy's priorities for action, two surveys were conducted directed at the key players in this process of change, namely young people (16-26 years old) and the country's companies.
From the study, the sense of opportunity arising from the ongoing processes of change is clear: ecological transition is now a shared priority: 7-out-of-10 young people and 6-out-of-10 companies see it as the key feature for the transition to the Society of the Future. In addition, young people match the priority for sustainability with an evolution in values that focuses on inclusiveness, a sense of community, and the promotion of the common good. Moreover, 6-out-of-10 companies deems the attention paid to inclusiveness, economic growth, environmental protection and the resilience of production systems insufficient. Consistently 7-out-of-10 young Italians think about the future with uncertainty.
Another central aspect that emerges from the study concerns the need to accelerate the pace of transition by maintaining a strong focus on community, territory and the public sector. The urgency to act to narrow the gap between the desired and the realistically envisaged future translates for young people into commitment and a sense of responsibility towards the community and the territory: 3-out-of-4 young people see the role of the public sector (schools and institutions) as a key pillar in facing the future. In parallel, nearly 1-in-2 companies are already pursuing plans to implement the ecological transition, although greater political commitment and institutional support for the transition is required by 4-in-10 of them.
Technology obviously plays a key role in this process of change: for more than 7-out-of-10 young people, digital is an integral part of everyday life and a powerful tool for social interaction. However, to drive the change toward "Society 5.0" - which puts human well-being at the core through technological convergence - requires a strengthening of the educational system (for almost 2-out-of-3 young people), with a greater focus on issues of ethics, technology and sustainability as well as technical skills (mentioned by almost 1-in-2 companies), which are necessary to fully seize the opportunities of the technological transition.
The role of the energy sector in the transition
In this evolutionary scenario, it must be stressed that any progress in the human economic and productive system goes hand in hand with a change in the energy system, and the shift towards the Society of the Future paradigm is no exception. Energy is the sector with the largest and most widespread impact on the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals (6 SDGs and 28 targets), is the leading economic sector in Europe and Italy in terms of investment intensity (accounting for 39% of the added value generated), and will enable new production chains, models of widespread and responsible involvement, and a sustainable and safe ecological transition.
The study identifies a possible development paradigm (the “Society 5.0”) that aims to be prosperous by having the well-being of people at its core ("human-centered society") according to principles of equity, security, sustainability and inclusiveness. Moving toward a Society of the Future thus characterized means rethinking operational models related to cities (how we will live), production and organizational models (how we will work), and communities (how we will relate). In this multidimensional framework, energy constitutes the enabling factor for most of the evolutionary paradigms presented, and thus the associated benefits.
In conclusion, the study helps highlight the importance of looking to the future, thinking about the challenges we face but also the opportunities available to us: in other words, the fundamental need to manage change (technological, environmental, geopolitical, social). Looking ahead to 2050, there emerges the progressive affirmation of an energy model that is (economically, environmentally, socially, technologically) sustainable, safe, widespread and participatory, with the direct involvement of all public and private, collective and individual stakeholders, with increasing commitments to structured dialogue, and the full development of renewable sources, new technologies ,and energy and environmental services, and renewed potential for these systems to empower the new ways of living, working and relating.