During the 44th “Intelligence on the World, Europe and Italy” Forum, Villa d’Este on September 7, 8 and 9, a study entitled “Six months to Brexit. Analysis of negotiations and impacts to guide business leaders in the transition ahead” has been presented.
With a few months to go to the date agreed upon for Brexit, anything is still possible, including a “hard Brexit”. The most important unresolved issue is the border question, specifically in terms of customs checks between Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic. Even if any forecast is premature, it can already be stated that the repercussions of Brexit will be negative for both parties, greater for the United Kingdom and severe in the event of failure to reach an agreement.
This, in fact, is the most-feared scenario and one to be guarded against: a hard Brexit would result in a loss in the growth of the UK economy to 2030 of between 4% and 8% of UK GDP. But European companies would also feel the impact. Suffering most would be trade and the manufacturing and banking sectors, with the risk that cross-European value chains would be disrupted.
A hard Brexit would also compromise the efforts that have been made in safeguarding the rights of European and British citizens, as well as the continuity of research and innovation projects with negative spinoffs for EU competitiveness. In this rapidly evolving scenario, the aim of the report prepared by The European House – Ambrosetti is to offer an exhaustive framework capable of providing a clear focus of the phenomenon and quantifying the extent of the major impacts of the United Kingdom’s exiting the EU to help business leaders to navigate their way through the transition under way and to make informed choices for the short- to medium-term.
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