The real impact of Brexit is linked to the result of the negotiations between the European Union and the United Kingdom and the scenario that seems to emerge shows that neither the EU nor the UK will likely see an improvement in their conditions as a result of London’s exit from the EU.
On 23 June 2016, 51.9% of British voters expressed themselves in favour of the United Kingdom leaving the European Union. This occurred despite the appeals of most international economists and global leaders, convinced that the realization of “Brexit” would have left the UK poorer and would have opened an irreparable vulnerability within the EU.
It is not yet clear if what is produced by the negotiations will be a “hard” Brexit or a more accommodating one for Britain. Certainly, although not free of conflict, the relationship between the UK and the EU has so far been very important and its redefinition will have consequences for both sides.
The concrete impact of Brexit will manifest itself in its entirety, however, only when the new rules on international trade, finance and the free movement of workers have been defined and applied. To date only a few limited effects are visible and the judgement one can draw from them is not always univocal.
This document has been expressly prepared for The European House – Ambrosetti Forum “Intelligence on the World, Europe, and Italy”, Villa d’Este -Cernobbio, September 1,2 and 3, 2017.